Thread: Tsunami - planetary link?

wow she was right on huh?!

Flim Flam.
She starts out mis quoting Michio Kaku.
She quoted Kaku as saying last earthquake was caused by a pole shift.
He made no such statement.
He stated the earths rotational velocity changed because of the quake.

Then she claims somethng is going to happen, because of the comet.
This comet has no where near enough mass to modify a planet, unless it is a direct hit.
Comets get their orbits modified by planets, because they are the lightweights in that tug of war.

Next, she is saying something is going to happen, but she doesn't know what.
And she says sometime during the next three months.
That is not a prediction, it is a guess.

I could say that I think a significant quake is going to happen next year.
This is going to happen because we just put a probe in orbit around Mercury.
Does this make me a prophet?
If a big quake happens next year, would this prove I am correct?

You can find people predicting tragedy on you tube pretty much all the time.
Guess what, natural disasters do happen.
Does that make the person who said it at the right time correct?

if i take a pebble and put it behind my back in one hand, and then ask my granddaughter to pick the right one, she will do so, maybe 70% of the time

you can also predict seismic activity will occur due to comets, flares, storms, explosions, etc.

i bet this is the first time she's been right, by the way, and now she has 'gotten lucky'. easy to do, we have so much activity going on right now, i can predict that there will be 'something major' happening in the next month, and i will be right

that doesn't make me a prophetess.

also, exactly where does she suggest to go to avoid fault lines? um, they are everywhere now, some small, some bigger than others--do we avoid just the 'big ones'? and how do we know which are apt to go off?

wonder when her book comes out......

j

Michio Kaku is a string theorist, not an astrophysicist, but anyway, he would not have stated the causal relationship backward like that.

I think she says 11th March to 15th March, Bart, and not a three month period.

However, this is nothing more than coincidence. She says that "Elenin" is supposed to be some cryptic mumbo jumbo, rather than the comet's real discoverer, but this Sky and Telescope article identifies him as a real human being with a photograph:

SkyandTelescope.com - Observing Blog - Bright Prospects for Comet Elenin?

But how often are "predicitions" like this made throughout the internet crackpotosphere? People are focusing on this one after the fact. This is the same tactic the media play with their financial gurus. For every one whose predictions come true, there are countless others whose predictions fail.

Before you put too much stock in this video, you perhaps need to learn something about the computation of ephemerides. The comet C/2010 X11 Elenin was discovered on 2010-12-10 and the Chile earthquake was nine months before this, so its orbit has been plotted in backward time to get the position on 2010-02-27. What program was she using to plot the ephemeris? She does not seem to mention in the video. How recent were the orbital elements used? Can the position be vouched for back in February of 2010? What the program probably does is plot the ephemeris for the elements on a given date. But are they subject to change for this comet and do they need periodic updating?

Okay, it looks like she's using this applet:

Cometary Orbit Viewer

Putting in the Elenin elements, you don't quite get the exact match up she is claiming. It's a bit out on 2010-02-27 and it's a bit out on 2011-03-11. Look at the pics I made attached. Obviously they are not that great because there is little functionality in the applet. You cannot ask it to precisely compute the times of opposition. It would be good to do a more detailed calculation of heliocentric longitude of the earth and Elenin on 2011-03-11 and 2010-02-27 and to precisely compute the times of opposition around those dates and see the disparity more exactly, but it is not an entirely trivial calculation by hand. There might be a feature that would help out in existing planetarium software packages but I do not know for sure.

I think this woman is either very well connected,Or very gifted...Now i watched the entire video,and i dont care if she misquoted anybody,The fact is,ALOT of what she said either happened or very well has been discussed as happening...A month ago i looked into buying 1000 M.R.E'S And two pallets of drinking water,Theyre on order...Lets call it "preparedness"..I always said,If you want to know where to hide if there comes a time TO hide,,Look to where the ultra rich are flocking..

I agree with the sentiment that anyone can fluke a prediction, what I'm asking is if comets can/do have a bearing on Earth's stability to this extent.

Bart, you say that the heavyweight will be unaffected, but doesn't every action have a reaction? What I guess it comes down to is whether or not a comet such as this could be relevant in a way that wasn't previously anticipated.

Anyway, thanks for the thoughts. As I say, this wasn't intended to be a debate on the merits of predictions (which I agree are on the whole are a load of nonsense imo) but more to do with whether or not something small could cause something...well I was going to describe it as large, but seen in the full context of Earth's size could also be described as small itself.

i dont see these as flukes

http://www.themistsofavalon.net/t157...ent-dates-2011

Originally Posted by lostprophets

i dont see these as flukes

Key Planetary Alignment Dates 2011

That's interesting.

There's confused topics in place here though.

The video I posted was of a comet's predicted influence on the Earth's stability/likelihood of global 'disaster' or worldly event. The videos in your link are of planetary alignment throughout our solar system which although very interesting are obviously a separate debate. Maybe they are linked, maybe they're not. It's my fault for using the word planet in the title then posting a question about a comet!

The next danger date according to these videos is this coming Friday where he's predicting a 7.5+ quake. How often these can happen at any time around the world though needs to be a factor in deciding just how accurate this is. I don't know if quakes of that magnitude are common at any time or place on Earth? Edit - and how many times do planetary alignments happen with zero of anything of note happening on Earth is also a factor.

I've just done a test by holding an apple in each arm, stretched out, and rotated them simultaneously in circles and can report that nothing happened to either apple.