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Aug 28 2007, 03:59 PM
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#1
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![]() Group: Members Posts: 169 Joined: 14-January 05 Member No.: 1,704 |
I was watching on TV about attempts to predict earthquakes. There were two methods that seemed to have good results, althought this sort of thing is still in its infancy.
One guy made a correlation with solar and lunar eclipses and the timing of earthquakes. Earth quakes, he observed, happened within a couple of months, more or less, of the time of a total solar or total lunar eclipse. The solar eclipse gave a higher probability. Well we have just had a total lunar eclipse and this month there was a major 7.2 earth quake near Japan and another earth quake in peru. This Japan earthquake indicates that the pacific plate is active. Based on these ideas, I'll predict another large earthquake, in california or north of there within the next 2 months. [I have seen it before that a california earthquake followed one in Japan; - and we have just had a total eclipse of the moon.] Another guy on TV showed a correlation between earthquakes and unusual white puffy cloud formations appearing over the fault line, within a short time, maybe 48 hours more or less, of an earthquake in that region near those clouds. Shortly before an earthquake, that is on land, lots of water vapor comes out of the fault line and condenses to form clouds. So, watch for such cloud formations over the faultlines in california and if you see that, then an earthquake is iminent in that area. [They said also on TV that they are expecting a major earth quake at some future time in the region around San Francisco. There is supposed to be a lot of strain built up there between the plates and according to the historical cycle, San Francisco is over due for a big earthquake.] So, let's wait and see if this happens or not. |
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Aug 28 2007, 03:59 PM
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Aug 28 2007, 04:17 PM
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#2
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![]() Group: Super Moderators Posts: 4,746 Joined: 10-July 06 From: Wild Rose, Wisconsin Member No.: 4,643 |
Correct me if I'm wrong, but has it not been described that animals react much differently before a quake?
Is so, your Earth-Quake prediction source may be as near as your family pet. |
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Aug 28 2007, 07:07 PM
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#3
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![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Members Posts: 2,238 Joined: 11-February 06 Member No.: 3,621 |
Earthquake prediction is a very unreliable science.... Either by Clouds, eclipses, even animal behavior. We'll just have to keep on building our super computers till we figure out exactly how to do this.
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Aug 29 2007, 03:28 AM
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#4
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![]() ((( Bring The Rain ))) ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Members Posts: 4,387 Joined: 18-June 06 From: Cambridgeshire England Member No.: 4,543 |
I would have thought there are way to many variables to ever predict them very accurately....i hope i'm wrong because it would certainly save alot of lives....
-------------------- Nathanial "a_skeptic" Meade 1979-2007 RIP |
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Aug 29 2007, 08:37 AM
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#5
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![]() Group: Super Moderators Posts: 4,746 Joined: 10-July 06 From: Wild Rose, Wisconsin Member No.: 4,643 |
(Fen Star;328342) I would have thought there are way to many variables to ever predict them very accurately....
Variable, yes. But they will always have things in common. If animals detecting quakes is true, then perhaps quakes emit sounds animals can hear that we can not. Ultra-high frequiences, ELFs or perhaps something else. If then we can prove it and determine it, we could build new detectors that would give nice advance warnings. |
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Aug 30 2007, 04:21 PM
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#6
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![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Members Posts: 4,933 Joined: 14-January 04 Member No.: 197 |
Large earthquakes happen every month. All along the "Ring of Fire". Often California and Japan seem to follow each other with quake events. What I noticed is every 3rd month October, Janurary, April and July all seem to have the most quakes. There is a chart showing all the major quakes in the past 100 years. Many of them happen on these months (but not all) all around the 17th, 18th and 19th of each of these months. October 17th was Loma Prieta of San Francisco in 89, April 18th was ther Great 1906 quake. Janurary 17 had a large quake in LA (Northridge) and exactly one year later was followed by the Kobe Earthquake.
Most large quakes that have occured in the San Francisco area however seem to happen between April, May and June. San Francisco and Northern California were very very active during the 1850s all the way up until the 1906 quake then was silent for nearly 90 years. Between 1850 and 1880 there were 4 Loma Prieta size quakes, 1 quake that was larger then the 1906 quake (The great Stockton quake of 1880) and hundreds if not thousands of smaller 4.0 or larger quakes that seem to rattle the bay area every month. So no one can say for sure when a Large quake will happen. but there seems to be a pattern at times but always seem to fail in predicting exactly when and where it will happen. For me, It's a gut feeling. I had a feeling a larger quake would hit after we were rattled by a series of quakes in San Francisco in June and July of 89. |
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Aug 30 2007, 06:04 PM
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#7
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![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Members Posts: 3,611 Joined: 26-August 06 Member No.: 4,857 |
I remember in November 1991 a climate specialist predicted a 9.0 earthquake along the New Madrid Fault in Missouri....I had to convince my lady friend that she needed to worry more about being run over by a media truck....but I told her she should always be ready for one
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Aug 31 2007, 02:05 AM
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#8
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![]() ((( Bring The Rain ))) ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Members Posts: 4,387 Joined: 18-June 06 From: Cambridgeshire England Member No.: 4,543 |
(Castle-Bravo354;328716) I remember in November 1991 a climate specialist predicted a 9.0 earthquake along the New Madrid Fault in Missouri....I had to convince my lady friend that she needed to worry more about being run over by a media truck....but I told her she should always be ready for one
We have actually been having quite a few here in the UK recently, mind you they are only little one's, i think the biggest was a few month's back 3.4 if i remember correctly, then there have been a couple more since then between 2 and 3 on the richter scale so nothing to worry about...well i hope not anyway lol.. -------------------- Nathanial "a_skeptic" Meade 1979-2007 RIP |
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Aug 31 2007, 05:33 PM
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#9
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![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Members Posts: 3,611 Joined: 26-August 06 Member No.: 4,857 |
(Fen Star;328774) We have actually been having quite a few here in the UK recently, mind you they are only little one's, i think the biggest was a few month's back 3.4 if i remember correctly, then there have been a couple more since then between 2 and 3 on the richter scale so nothing to worry about...well i hope not anyway lol..
Fen....I live near a large earthquake fault in New England.....like you we can have both have quakes....just large ones are not as likely |
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Sep 9 2007, 02:11 PM
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#10
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![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Members Posts: 4,933 Joined: 14-January 04 Member No.: 197 |
Didn't a large quake hit Chicago some years back? As mentioned, I think fault lines are everywhere. The worst disaster in US history probably wont happen in San Francisco or LA. It will probably happen in Anchorage alaska. Where some 300 thousand people live. They're the ones who are going to get 9.2 quakes and huge waves to sweep everyone away. California only sees 8.0 or larger quakes every 200-300 years. I think I read that Alaska gets them every 20 years.
Would suck if it happen in the dead of winter. People trapped without power and then a tsunami follows. |
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Sep 11 2007, 06:22 PM
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#11
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![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Members Posts: 3,611 Joined: 26-August 06 Member No.: 4,857 |
(trog;329835) Didn't a large quake hit Chicago some years back? As mentioned, I think fault lines are everywhere. The worst disaster in US history probably wont happen in San Francisco or LA. It will probably happen in Anchorage alaska. Where some 300 thousand people live. They're the ones who are going to get 9.2 quakes and huge waves to sweep everyone away. California only sees 8.0 or larger quakes every 200-300 years. I think I read that Alaska gets them every 20 years.
Would suck if it happen in the dead of winter. People trapped without power and then a tsunami follows. Trog....between December of 1811 and March of 1812 there were over 1,700 measureable earthquakes in southern Illinois, southern Missouri, western Kentucky and northern Arkansas....4 of those were 8.0 or more on the richter scale....the largest was 8.8....if such a quake happened there now Memphis, St. Louis and Paducha Kentucky would be gone....and chicago would be having serious trouble. Look up the New Madrid fault...you may find it interesting |
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